ARE YOU TIRED OF BEAR MARKETS THAT CRUSH YOUR ACCOUNT?

HOW TO MORE THAN DOUBLE THE RETURN OF THE S&P 500 WITH LESS RISK THAN "BUY AND HOPE"

 

It was Saturday, March 14th, 2020 and my phone rang early that morning.  I recognized the voice of my father on the line, but he sounded very panicked..

I immediately thought that there was some horrible medical emergency that he was going to tell me about, but thankfully, that was not the case...

With the same fear in his voice that I would expect if a medical emergency had happened, he began to tell me about his reason for the early morning call..

My father had been a college psychology professor for 40+ years and was planning to retire at the end of the spring semester in May...

With his voice trembling, he began to tell me about how his retirement account had gone from all time highs on 2/19/2020 down into a bear market ( greater than a 20% drop from the highs) in the last 16 trading days!

He was in disbelief...."How could my retirement that I have built up over the last 40+ years, go up in smoke in such a short time?....I'm afraid there won't be anything left of my account in another month!....What am I going to do?"

My father's concern was very valid and very real!  It was causing him to have paralyzing fear!

The entire planet was realizing that COVID-19 was unfolding as a worldwide contagion and life as we knew it up to that point may never be the same!.....

 

My name is Michael Karoly.  I'm a husband, father of two, OB/GYN physician, and founder of www.how2beatwallstreet.com.

If you are worried about watching your stock market profits evaporate with the next market crash.....

If you remember being paralyzed with fear after the Corona Crash and if you watched as the market came roaring back to life but you were too afraid to buy.....

If you want to be able to make money in the markets without the panic that comes with the next looming market crash.....

If you want a proven strategy instead of "Buy and Hope".....

......then you need to read every word in this report because I am going to show you how it is possible to more than double the S+P 500 return with less risk than "Buy and Hope".....

Before I get into the details, let me tell you a little about myself...

I'm a board certified Ob/Gyn and have been in private practice in Georgia for the last 22 years.  

Back in 1996, I came home from a long day as a 2nd year Ob/Gyn resident to find an advertisement in that evening's mail from Ken Roberts.  

It was for his futures trading course that he referred to as "The World's Perfect Business."

I ordered his course and devoured the material...

I jumped head first into the commodity markets and pictured myself wearing a smoking jacket while enjoying a cigar with Ken Roberts in my imaginary, house-sized humidor...

Needless to say, I did NOT experience the success that I had hoped for....

BUT, I did get the trading bug and I credit that to Ken Roberts.

That trading bug has stayed with me for the last 25 years....

Initially, I went on to blow up several trading accounts and then read every book out there that had anything to do with trading.  You name it and I'm sure that I have read it!

I even went to a course about getting my trading psychology right for success!

I had figured out every way out there to NOT be successful in the markets over the next decade!

I would look at myself from the outside and here I was a very successful physician, but I was a failure as a trader!

I would watch in horror as a trade would go against me day after day!

I would HOPE that the market would reverse and my position would go into profit.

Let me tell you, folks, HOPE is NOT a strategy!

The pain would finally get so unbearable as my open position loss would grow and I would finally close my position ONLY TO WATCH THE MARKET REVERSE!

It was as if I would get out of my positions at EXACTLY the worst price!

I became convinced that Mr. Market knew exactly what my position was and did everything in his power to make sure that I would lose money!

Have you ever felt like that?

One night at around midnight, my wife came downstairs and I was in my home office studying the markets as this had become my nightly custom....

She came up to me with tears in her eyes and said, "It's so sad."

I was caught off guard and was confused...."What are you talking about?" I said...

Little did I know that the next words out of her mouth would change my trading life.....

She said, "I've watched you put thousands of hours into studying the markets and you have nothing to show for it!"

OUCH!.....

Those words cut me into my core.....

......BUT SHE WAS RIGHT!

I had been trading for about 10 years at that point and I wasn't profitable.

Her words that night forced me to get the perspective that I needed in order to critically evaluate my trading and to see where I was going wrong...

THIS IS WHEN EVERYTHING CHANGED....

I started to document all of my trades closely and realized that for the most part I was doing pretty well, but I would give back all of my profits for the year by hanging on to losing trades for way too long.

For the first time, I started looking at my trading as a business and I realized that there were 2 key points that were getting me in trouble...

1) I was thinking about profits first and not focusing on risk.

2) I was not getting out of losing trades when I should have.

I did a deep dive into these 2 problems and realized that in order to be profitable I had to make a radical change to my trading philosophy.

I needed to do the following 2 things ALWAYS:

1) Focus on risk first

2) Get out of trades when my maximum risk for that trade had been reached.

This change in focus and discipline was what had been lacking and it made all of the difference in my trading results...

I learned that I did not want to admit when I was wrong about a trade and so, I was holding on to losing trades because I did not want to take the loss....

In my mind, I didn't have to admit that I was wrong about the trade unless I exited the trade.  

I had watched so many times that the trade would turn around just when I would get out and that reinforced my ego-driven need to be right.....I was basically telling myself that I would never get out of a losing trade because the market will just reverse when I do.....That was the persistent mistake that had to change!

Have you ever heard the saying, "Do you want to be right or do you want to make money?"

Up to that point, I had been telling myself that I wanted to make money, but my trading was saying that being right was more important!

Friends, trading and ego should not coexist...The sooner that you can separate your need to be right from your trading, then the sooner you will be profitable!

I HAD FIGURED OUT THE ROOT CAUSE OF MY TRADING FAILURE AND I GIVE ALL OF THE CREDIT TO MY WIFE'S WORDS THAT FATEFUL NIGHT....

If this sounds familiar, then I want you to realize that we as human beings are hard-wired to make these types of trading mistakes...

It goes back to the "fight or flight" response that has kept us alive over the centuries...

Our ancestors would have to resort to quick decisions when faced with a life or death situation....

Think about coming face to face with the proverbial Saber-Toothed Tiger...

In order to survive the encounter, our ancestors didn't have time for critical thinking and needed to rely on adrenaline-induced quick decision making...

Am I going to fight the beast or am I going to run...

When face to face with a Saber-Toothed Tiger, there must be immediate action as there is no time to think about all of the possible scenarios at that time.  

The time for critical decision making is before you are ever face to face with the beast.  

From the safety of your cave, you have the time to critically think about a potential future encounter with the Saber-Toothed Tiger....

You can run through all of the possible scenarios, complete with battle strategy and what to do if things are not going according to plan...

It is the same with trading....

It's too late to try and think critically when you are losing money in a trade...

Your adrenaline is pumping at that time and you are limited in your ability to critically think in that moment....

You must formulate the battle strategy BEFORE you place the trade....

You must decide AHEAD OF TIME how much to place at risk and when to get out if the trade does not play out according to your plan.

If you can develop the discipline to formulate your trading plan BEFORE you place the trade and develop the DISCIPLINE to get out when your maximum predefined risk is breached, then the profits will come!

For the next several years, I spent a lot of time discussing trading with my family and friends...

I felt an overwhelming desire to help them learn how to be successful in their trading...

I soon realized that my friends and family had no where near the passion that I had for studying the markets and that they were motivated by a simple principle.....THEY JUST WANTED TO MAKE MONEY!

They didn't want to take the time to learn different trading techniques and the nuances of trading that naturally follow...

Many of my friends and family would say things like, "Why don't you just manage my money for me?"

While I was flattered by their confidence in me, I wanted them to have the satisfaction of creating their own success and not being dependent on anyone else for that success.

I wanted to teach them HOW TO FISH instead of just GIVING THEM FISH...

It was then that I realized why the financial services industry has such a stronghold on our society...

Every day individuals put more thought into what's for dinner than what to do with their retirement dollars!  They have become convinced that the "professionals" on Wall Street are the only ones who have the magic knowledge needed in order to manage money......THIS IS SO NOT TRUE!!

Who cares the most about your money?.......YOU DO!!

Just like we have been taught to "get a good education, get a good job, and save up for retirement," we have been trained to just turn over our hard-earned money to Wall Street and "forget about that money until you retire."

The major problem is that there are a HUGE number of people getting ready to retire and Wall Street DID NOT achieve for them what they had promised!

I have several colleagues who are thinking about retirement and so many of them say that their retirement accounts are no where near what they thought they would be at this point in their careers!

Let's look for a moment at the ACTUAL results that Wall Street has provided with all of their special skills ( can you feel the sarcasm?)....

The folks at Tastytrade did a great study that demonstrates just how bad Wall Street's performance has been...

They looked at 5 "uncorrelated" ETFs (exchange traded funds) in every possible combination of being long (owning the asset), being short (selling the asset and hoping to profit by a down move, then buying it back at a lower price) and being flat (having no position in the asset).

The fact that these ETFs had very low "correlation" simply meant that the ETFs did not typically move together.  So, if one ETF went up in value, the others may go down in value or stay flat.  The assets didn't necessarily behave in a similar manner.

This would be similar to Wall Street saying to "diversify" your portfolio.

THE FINDINGS WERE ASTOUNDING!! ....  The average return was 2% per year across all of the different possible combinations of assets.  Some years a portfolio may make 20% or lose 20%, but THE AVERAGE RETURN ACROSS ALL OF THE POTENTIAL COMBINATIONS WAS 2%!!

2%!! .... That doesn't sound like the 9-10% per year that Wall Street had promised!

 

It turns out that 2% is just enough of a return to pay for Wall Street's fees, but leaves nothing for the hard working people of this country to live on in retirement!

Most Wall Street money managers charge a 1% fee on the money under their management, regardless of their performance.

This leaves a mere 1% return on your hard-earned money!

So, for example, if you have a $500,000 retirement account with a money manager, they are charging you 1% per year or $5,000....each and every year that your account is under their management.

I want you to think about the returns that you have made in your retirement account and the risk that you took in order to make those returns...

I would ask you to pull out your account statements  and really look at the year end returns that you received....

....look at the drawdowns that occurred in order to get those returns....

Then, I want you to look at the fees that you paid to your Wall Street money manager....

Please go through the exercise of reviewing your retirement account statements! 

It will be well worth it!.....You deserve to know the truth!

It's easy to let them muddy the waters, when they include the new money that you've added during the year in with your "returns."......

They are not being honest when they do that...

You must look at the returns that they are earning for you in a pure sense....do not include the new money that you've added to the account during the year in those calculations...

When you are done with this worthwhile exercise, then you are left with 3 big questions to answer....

1) Does your Wall Street money manager really deserve their huge 1% fee?

THE ANSWER IS A RESOUNDING......NO!

2) Is it time to fire your Wall Street money manager?.........YES!

3) Is there a better way to manage your money that takes minimal time each month, has better returns, has less risk, and costs a fraction of what you are currently paying?.......YES!

INTRODUCING.....THE HOW TO BEAT WALL STREET MONTHLY TRADING SIGNALS...

I have realized over time that most people are results-oriented and want to be efficient with their time...

Despite the fact that I enjoy the nuances of trading, most people don't have that passion and I have accepted that fact....

My quest to help people learn how to trade successfully has morphed over time into providing an easy to use trading framework that requires no prior trading experience and can be implemented in just a few minutes per month...

My system has more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 over the last 18 1/2 years with less volatility than just "Buy and Hope."

Let's look under the hood and take a closer look at The How To Beat Wall Street Trading Signals....

My system uses a universe of ETFs that can be easily bought and sold in any account from your online brokerage platform.

In addition, with the competition among online brokerages there has been a move towards $0 commissions for ETF trades.

The system uses a combination of momentum over different time frames as well as a volatility and "risk off" filter.....

It has performed extremely well over the last 18 1/2 years, through both Bull and Bear markets having more than doubled the return of "Buy and Hope" with less volatility!

Now, as you know, past results are no guarantee of future results....

Let's look at the past performance details:

courtesy of ETFreplay.com

Let's define some of the terms used above:

"CAGR" - stands for "Compounded Annual Growth Rate."  This is a way of comparing different investment returns over time...

CAGR smooths out the total returns over time so that the total return is viewed as a constant rate of return....This makes comparing results across different investments a more "apples to apples" comparison...

CAGR does not take Volatility into account and that is why it is important to look at CAGR AND Volatility when you compare different investments.

The other metric that CAGR is good for is estimating potential future returns.

Looking back over the 18 1/2 year history of The How To Beat Wall Street Trading Signals, you can see that the CAGR is +23.1%....

The total return for The How To Beat Wall Street Trading Signals was 4485.9% compared to 587.9% for "Buy and Hope" going back to 2003!

So, if you started with $100,000 in 2003 and had a +23.1% CAGR from 2003 to June 2021, then you would simply multiply the starting value in 2003 x 1.231 for each year as follows:

Starting value in 2003 = $100,000

$100,000 x 1.231 = $123,100 at end of 2003

If you perform this math from 2003 until the end of 2020, then $100,000 becomes $4,213,519!  

 

Let's look at the Volatility of the system...

Volatility describes how much an asset's price moved during the time in question.

The higher the Volatility, then the higher the price swings that occurred.

We want a system with a HIGH CAGR with LOW Volatility.

As you can see from the above results....my system had a 17.4% Volatility compared to a 19% Volatility for "Buy and Hope."

Another way to think about Volatility is to look at the Maximum Drawdown, which describes how much the system lost during the timeframe examined...

Just owning the SPY (ETF that tracks the S&P 500) had a -55.2% Maximum Drawdown, whereas The How To Beat Wall Street Trading Signals had only a -21.1% Maximum Drawdown.

This means that my system suffered less than half of the drawdown that "Buy and Hope" suffered.

When you compare the CAGR of +23.1% with my system to the "Buy and Hope" CAGR of +11% AND see that the Maximum Drawdown was less than half of the drawdown with "Buy and Hope," then you are starting to see the true beauty of The How To Beat Wall Street Trading Signals!

"Sharpe ratio" is another way of comparing returns across different investments that does take Volatility into account.

The higher the Sharpe Ratio, then the better the investment return per unit of risk.

By way of comparison, Berkshire Hathaway (the company managed by Warren Buffet) had a Sharpe Ratio of 0.76 over a 30 year time from from 1976 to 2011.

As you can see above, our system had a Sharpe Ratio of 1.16 since 2003 compared to 0.53 with "Buy and Hope."

Now, please don't take me the wrong way here...I am not saying that Warren Buffet is a bad manager at all....

But, by his own admission, he is not a market timer and did suffer from large drawdowns during bear markets...

Let's look at how The How To Beat Wall Street Trading Signals performed during the Bear Markets and corrections that occurred since the beginning of 2003...

There were 3 significant Bear Markets since 2003:

1) The Great Recession 2007-2009

2) The last 3 months of 2018

3) The COVID-19 Crash (the fastest Bear Market in history)

Let's start with The Great Recession from 2007 to 2009:

The S&P 500 had a maximum drawdown of -47.6%!

If you had simply been invested in SPY....what I call "Buy and Hope," then you watched in horror as almost half of your money vanished from the peak of the market in late 2007 to the bottom of the market in March of 2009!

That's a bitter pill to swallow, my friends!

The How To Beat Wall Street Trading Signals had a maximum drawdown for that same time period of -19.8%!

Now, while it is never fun to watch an account decrease in value, it is much easier to tolerate a 19.8% drop versus a 47.6% drop!

Let's compare how my system performed during this timeframe year by year in comparison to "Buy and Hope."

In 2007.....S&P 500: +5.1%     My System: +34.9%

In 2008.....S&P 500:  -36.8%   My System: +12.6%

In 2009.....S&P 500:  +26.4%  My System:  +69.2%

Those numbers speak for themselves......

 

Let's look at significant correction #2....the sell off from October - December 2018:

During those 3 months, the S&P 500 had a maximum drawdown of -19.3%, just missing the technical "Bear Market" by 0.7%.....Remember, a Bear Market is defined by a 20% drop from the recent high price.

The How To Beat Wall Street Trading Signals had a maximum drawdown of -10.2% during that same timeframe!

That is half the drawdown compared to "Buy and Hope!"

 

Now, let's look at the COVID-19 Crash that is fresh in everyone's mind...

On 2/19/2020, the SPY traded at a high price of 339.08 and on 3/12/2020, the SPY closed more than 20% below that February high price!

The market went from all time highs into a Bear Market in just 16 trading days!

THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A MORE RAPID DESCENT INTO A BEAR MARKET IN HISTORY!....even taking into consideration the 2007-2009 crash, the 2000-2002 dot.com crash, the 1987 crash, and even the 1929 Great Depression!

The COVID-!9 Bear Market low for SPY was 218.26 on 3/23/2020, which was -35.6% off of the highs 23 trading days earlier on 2/19/2020!

Let's look at how "Buy and Hope" compared to my system during the COVID-19 crash:

Feb 2020:     S&P 500:  -7.92% with a Volatility of 24.9%       

                 My System:  -1.73% with a Volatility of 10.5%

 

Mar 2020:    S&P 500:  -12.46% with a Volatility of 89.6%

                My System:  +5.05%   with a Volatility of 39.6%

The maximum drawdown from Feb to Mar 2020 in the S&P 500 was -35.6% compared to -10.6% in my system......less than 1/3 of the drawdown with much less Volatility!

This is how you can sleep at night and not worry about your portfolio!

If you look at the Summary Statistics in the performance data above, you will see that The How To Beat Wall Street Trading Signals have only a 0.35 correlation to SPY....

The closer the correlation is to 1.00, then the more the system would behave like the SPY, but my system is only 35% correlated to the SPY, yet it has greater than twice the CAGR and a fraction of the Volatility!

IF YOU ARE TIRED OF THE INEVITABLE DRAWDOWNS THAT COME WITH BEING INVESTED IN THE MARKET.....

IF YOU WANT TO BE ABLE TO MORE THAN DOUBLE THE S&P 500 RETURNS WITH LESS RISK.....

IF YOU ARE TIRED OF PAYING HIGH FEES TO YOUR WALL STREET MONEY MANAGER AND NOT HAVING ANYTHING LEFT OF SIGNIFICANCE TO SHOW FOR IT......

THEN........ISN'T IT TIME?

YES.........IT'S TIME TO MAKE THE SWITCH TO......

THE HOW TO BEAT WALL STREET TRADING SIGNALS

Here's How It Works:

  • Simply buy 2 ETFs on the first trading day of each month

  • Detailed instructions sent by email after the last trading day of the month

  • Sell the 2 ETFs at the close on the last trading day of each month

 

WHAT THIS IS NOT:

  • This is not day trading

  • No sitting in front of your computer all day

  • No worrying about what the market is going to do

  • No sleepless nights

  • No TUMS......No heartburn!

  • No Pepcid.....No heartburn! 

  • No trading experience required

 

Even if you have never placed a buy or sell order before.....no worries.

You will be given detailed instructions on how to place your buy and sell orders.

You will enter trades with a limit order, which tells your broker to buy at a specified price or better.

You will sell on the close of the last trading day with a Market On Close order..known as MOC....This order will tell your broker to sell at the prevailing price at the close of trading on that last trading day of the month.

Placing these orders will take less than a few minutes each month.

What would this be worth to you....to know that you are more than doubling the return of the S&P 500 with less risk than "Buy and Hope?"

I could easily charge thousands for access to this system....

But, I want to help the everyday investor out there....

I want you to stop paying thousands in fees to Wall Street money managers...

For just $19 per month, you can have access to this incredible system...

I only ask that you only use this for YOUR account.....NO WALL STREET MONEY MANAGERS ALLOWED...

It's time to level the playing field....

You can do this.....I'm here to help if you have any questions...

THE HOW TO BEAT WALL STREET TRADING SIGNALS ARE NOT FOR EVERYONE....

....If you want to continue to pay high fees to your Wall Street money manager for low CAGR and high drawdowns, then this is not for you....

....If you like heartburn and sleepless nights worrying about the market's gyrations, then this is not for you....

BUT......if you are ready to take control of your portfolio...

....if you are ready to sleep peacefully and not worry about the market's ups and downs....

....if you are ready to make 2 simple trades on the first trading day of each month

....if you are ready to more than double the return of the S&P 500 with less risk than "Buy and Hope".....

...Then, The How To Beat Wall Street Trading Signals are here for you...

CLICK BELOW TO GET STARTED NOW

You can cancel anytime, no questions asked.

Friends, the time has come and it's LONG overdue....

It's time to learn how to manage your own trading account and FIRE YOUR WALL STREET MONEY MANAGER!

YOU CAN DO IT!!

I want you to imagine being CONSISTENTLY profitable in your trading...

What would that be worth to you?

Can you afford to NOT have this information?

...To Your Success,

Dr. Mike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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